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Fixed Income:Long-term Concern Yet to Be Alleviated

2017-08-01 16:31:19 新浪财经 评论 字号 繁体中文 关闭 收藏 打印 复制
兴业证券股份有限公司 兴业证券研究所


  Currently, the market liquidity conditions are relaxed. In the next two weeks, liquidity will very likelytighten. Bond supply may face increasing downside pressure. We have also noticed that the marketsentiment is getting stronger. Bond investors have slowed down investment. As the marketsupply/demand relations become imbalanced. Yield drop will slow down. As economicfundamentals have stabilized and bad new comes from overseas market, we think in the next twoweeks, the bond market may see fluctuation risks. We don’t encourage investors to enter themarket.

  As the Chinese government vows to strengthen market stability, it’s very likely that the monetarypolicy will stay neutral. As investors generally have large sum of money at hand and look for highreturn, they are willing to enter the market when it’s on drop. As the liquidity remains stable, marketmay not drop sharply. We maintain our view that in the next one to two months, the market will bequite volatile. The market will continue eager pursuit of high yield. The long-term rates may notlikely beat the previous high. We believe ideal trading opportunities can still be seen.

  The bond market remains uncertain in the mid-term. We advise investors to take a closer look at thefollowing factors. 1) Investors bullish on long-term outlook believe in the mid-to-long run China’seconomy will be in a downturn and policy will further relax. Currently, the market has reached broadconsensus that China’s economy will first rise then drop. While in reality, China’s economy hasbeen growing steadily since last year. As long as the policy is relaxed the fund-raising is resumed,over-pessimism towards economy would be corrected in the mid-term. In addition, the policy is onlymarginally relaxed rather then reversed. Whether the market stability will sustain remains uncertain.2) As long as bond supply on the primary market resumes, financial institutions will increase bondposition and buy in longer-duration bonds. 3) The key concerns to the market including volatileliabilities held by financial institutions and instable market structure have yet to be resolved. In themid-run, we need to take a closer look on changes on fundamentals and policies, as well as thenegative effects brought about by fragile market structure and the negatives from overseas market.

  We don’t t expect a long-term market bull-run ahead. There are still many risks yet to be exposed.

  We advise investors to engage in short-term trading. Those holding instable liabilities need tostrengthen liquidity management and avoid purchase of long-duration credit bonds.


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